President Donald Trump has arrived. His first term (2017-2021) was a mixed bag for India, marked by moments of alignment and friction. Now that Trump 2.0 is a reality, India must prepare for another round of geopolitical maneuvering, economic recalibrations, and strategic recalculations.
Donald Trump’s first presidency saw a significant shift in U.S.-India relations. There were trade disputes as a result of imposition of tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum. In response, India imposed retaliatory tariffs, leading to trade tensions between the two nations. Additionally, Trump revoked India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits, which had previously allowed duty-free exports of certain goods to the U.S. The Trump administration tightened immigration policies, restricting H-1B visas, which adversely affected Indian IT professionals and tech companies that relied heavily on the American market. Trump’s retreat from multilateralism, including pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement and challenging the WTO, created uncertainty in global trade and diplomacy, affecting India’s strategic calculations.
However, despite trade tensions, security cooperation between India and the U.S. deepened under Trump. India was designated a Major Defense Partner, and agreements like COMCASA and BECA facilitated military intelligence sharing. Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at countering China’s influence, aligned with India’s interests. The revival of the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) was a significant strategic move that benefited India in the face of growing tensions with China. Trump expanded U.S. energy exports to India, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, reducing India’s dependency on traditional suppliers in the Middle East.
Cut to 2025. I have little doubt that India’s engagement with the U.S. would likely be shaped by similar transactional approaches but with new global dynamics. The next phase of U.S.-India relations could witness both challenges and opportunities.
The Fall
Resurgence of Trade Disputes: Given Trump’s protectionist tendencies, it is possible that trade issues would resurface. Tariffs, restrictions on Indian exports, and visa challenges could once again strain economic ties.
Pressure on Defense Purchases: Trump’s demand for allies to buy American weapons could lead to pressure on India to purchase more U.S. defense equipment while limiting India’s traditional reliance on Russian arms.
Policy Uncertainty and Unilateralism: If Trump 2.0 follows the same unilateralist approach as before, India might face difficulties navigating an unpredictable geopolitical landscape.
Challenges in the Indo-Pacific: While Trump was tough on China, his erratic decision-making often created instability. If he withdraws from key alliances or undermines multilateral forums, India may face strategic dilemmas.
The Rise
Strengthened Indo-Pacific Cooperation: Trump’s second term could see an even stronger push against China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, benefiting India’s strategic positioning.
Boost to Bilateral Defense Ties: Given India’s increasing defense modernization efforts, Trump’s affinity for military deals could lead to larger defense procurements and technology transfers between the two nations.
Reinforcement of the Quad: If Trump sees the Quad as an effective tool against China, its role in regional security could be expanded, making India a central player in Asian geopolitics.
Economic Engagement through New Trade Deals: Trump may seek new trade agreements with India, especially if he views India as a counterbalance to China in global supply chains. A renegotiation of GSP or a new trade framework could be on the table.
Energy Security and Infrastructure Investment: Trump’s emphasis on energy exports could lead to increased U.S. investment in India’s energy sector, boosting India’s transition to cleaner fuels while enhancing energy security.
India’s Strategy in a Trump 2.0 World
To navigate a second Trump term effectively, India must adopt a balanced strategy:
Diversify Trade Partnerships: To counter potential trade volatility, India should expand economic partnerships with Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa to reduce dependence on the U.S. market.
Strengthen Domestic Manufacturing: India’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative should be leveraged to become more self-reliant, especially in technology and defense manufacturing.
Engage in Strategic Diplomacy: India must proactively engage with U.S. policymakers to ensure bipartisan support for strong U.S.-India ties beyond just Trump’s personal stance.
Enhance Cyber and Technology Cooperation: Given Trump’s focus on technology decoupling from China, India could leverage its tech expertise to collaborate with the U.S. on AI, cybersecurity, and semiconductor manufacturing.
Continue Strong Ties with Other Global Powers: While the U.S. is an important partner, India must maintain strong relationships with the EU, Japan, Russia, and emerging markets to keep its strategic autonomy intact.
The second Trump presidency shall be a familiar mix of unpredictability, transactional diplomacy, and strategic realignments. While challenges in trade and immigration will resurface, opportunities in defense, energy, and geopolitical cooperation could make India a more central player in global affairs. If India plays its cards well, Trump 2.0 could mark not just a phase of adjustment but a period of significant strategic and economic gains.
Ultimately, India must remain agile, adaptive, and assertive in its approach, ensuring that its national interests align with an evolving global order.